"...It's Like A Riddle, Wrapped In An Enigma, Inside A Luxury RV Dressing Room...."

Everybody likes solving puzzles.

Present company included.

I figured one out this morning and am pretty impressed with myself.

If I do say so myself.

First, our story.....

I came across the following article online regarding "undecided voters" as of this date in the 2012 campaign.

Polling in the presidential race is neck and neck, with just 19 days to go until the election.

Each side has consolidated a strong base but neither has enough support to push them over into a majority yet.

The election, then, will come down to an enigmatic group of undecided voters that are alternatively pandered to and mocked in political circles.

So who are these people?

The composite for a prototypical undecided voter is:

• Female
• Single
• White
• Employed
• 18-to-29 years old
• Didn't graduate from college
• Low income
• Union household
• Identifies as Protestant but doesn't go to church
• Skipped the debate.

Here's how we know: Typically it's difficult to get the detailed internal data for the poll, but the Tarrance/LRP poll, released by Politico and George Washington University, is right out there for everyone to see, with a stunning 450 pages worth of raw demographic data. With a sample size of over 1,000 national likely voters, it's statistically significant.

The most recent poll, taken Oct. 7-11 found that 8% of people are unsure about who they would support on election day. Approached demographically, groups that have rates of uncertainty greater than 8% are more likely to be undecided than the average voter. Check this example out:

Since we know that the percent of the whole sample that was undecided was 8%, here's the conclusion we can draw from this data:

• Protestants are more likely to be undecided than the average voter.
• Baptists, "Others", and voters who are not religiously affiliated are as likely to be undecided as the average voter.
• Catholics and Pentecostal Christians are less likely to be undecided than the average voter.

So that's why our prototypical composite undecided voter is a Protestant. Doing that for each of the demographics paints this picture:

The prototypical undecided voter is a white 18 to 29 year old woman who didn't graduate from college. She's employed, single, and identifies as an independent.

In elections, she typically splits tickets and considers herself a soft Democrat. She is unsure if she identifies with the Tea Party movement.

She lives in a union household, and is considered low-income. She's a Protestant, but goes to church infrequently or never.

She's not sure about who would take the country in the right direction and doesn't know who she plans to elect to congress. She did not watch the debate or any coverage of the debate.

Granted, this person is a composite and there are probably not a whole lot of people out there who are each and every one of these things.


Being every bit the fan of the N.C.I.S/C.S.I., et al, school of deduction, I was delighted, as you might imagine, when I realized, pretty much from the get go who, in fact, the undecided voter is.

And, just as the article says, they meet not all, but pretty much most, of the criteria.

Age, race, gender, education, marital status, employment status.

Check, check, check, check, check...and check.

Low income?

No, not so much.

Much to our chagrin, I imagine.

But, as for the rest of it?

Non church going, unsure who or what they stand for, unsure as to who will or will not be able to lead the country in the right direction, independant, but oblivious to any debate or coverage of any of the debates.

In short, pretty fuzzy on anything living outside their circle of life.

Son of a gun.

I nailed it from the get go.

And was able to easily answer the question posed by the writer of the piece.

"....so, who are these people?...."

Ooh. Pick me, pick me.

I know, I know.

I know who the undecided voter is.

Lindsay Lohan.